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| #454407 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 28.Aug.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011 500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011 JOSE REMAINS A SMALL AND STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE... ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 1334 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF ABOVE 35 KT. ALSO...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR ON BERMUDA AND ALSO BY A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTH OF BERMUDA. GIVEN THE COARSE RESOLUTION OF ASCAT DATA AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...THE COMBINATION OF THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ASIDE FROM THE EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FORECAST...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CIRCULATION OF JOSE QUICKLY BECOMING DEFORMED AND DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE AND INDICATES DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS. JOSE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/14. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REGARDING THE TRACK. JOSE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 33.2N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 35.7N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 39.7N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART |
