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| #454489 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 28.Aug.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...JOSE HAD THE CLASSIC APPEARANCE...ALBEIT QUITE COMPACT...OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE IN RADAR DATA FROM BERMUDA. SINCE THAT TIME JOSE HAS LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE SMALL CYCLONE STILL HAS VERY TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION SPIRALING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0/30 KT...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT GIVEN THE TIGHT SPIRAL BAND APPEARANCE NOTED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/18 KT. JOSE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD LEVEL OFF SOON AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AS A RESULT OF NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COMPACT CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH ALONG 55W LONGITUDE. BY 24 HOURS...JOSE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VERY COLD WATER...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. AFTER PASSING BRIEFLY THROUGH A REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...JOSE IS NOW MOVING INTO A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THESE TWO CONVERGING STREAMS OF AIR AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...ALONG WITH SSTS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 26C IN 12-18 HOURS...SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THIS COMPACT CYCLONE...WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE OVER SUB-20C WATER TEMPERATURES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 35.0N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 37.8N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 41.3N 62.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
