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| #454655 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 29.Aug.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME BROKEN BANDS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB... RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INTIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. CURRENTLY THERE IS MODERATE TO STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY ITS APPEARANCE AND GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL SOON LESSEN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 275/13. THERE IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...BUT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 40-50W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM MOVING SIGNIFICANTLY POLEWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 9.8N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 10.3N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 11.2N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 12.3N 34.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 13.4N 37.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 15.0N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 16.5N 48.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 18.5N 53.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
