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| #454945 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 30.Aug.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011 EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KATIA HAS DECREASED AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE BANDING FEATURES ARE BETTER DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET AT 40 KT. WITH WEAKENING SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 28 DEG C...KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOWS KATIA NEARING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 285/16. NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 12.3N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 13.0N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 13.8N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 14.6N 42.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 15.4N 45.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 17.0N 51.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 19.0N 55.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 21.5N 59.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
