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| #45497 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 12.Sep.2005) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z MON SEP 12 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.8W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.8W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.3N 77.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 38.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 41.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 76.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH |
