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| #455014 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 30.Aug.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011 KATIA CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH INCREASING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH...WEST...AND SOUTH OF THE STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. KATIA WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 DEG C AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION...285/17...IS ONLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED. KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PRODUCED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SOUTH OF THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ON THE BASIS OF AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.7N 35.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 13.3N 37.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 14.1N 41.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 14.9N 44.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 15.7N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 17.5N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 19.5N 56.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 21.5N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
