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| #455798 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 03.Sep.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 100 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011 ...LEE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...NUMEROUS RAINBANDS MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 91.8W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. LEE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES... 325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42040 LOCATED EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 45 MPH...72 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
