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| #456053 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 03.Sep.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011 ...SOGGY LEE LUMBERING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 92.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN OFFSHORE OIL RIG SOUTH OF SABINE PASS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 50 MPH...81 KM/H AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...90 KM/H AT AN ELEVATION OF 230 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. REPORTS FROM OFFSHORE OIL RIGS AND LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY COASTAL OBSERVING SITES INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
