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| #456302 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 04.Sep.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011 ...LEE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 91.9W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES... 445 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH... 72 KM/H AND A GUST TO 49 MPH...79 KM/H. NUMEROUS OFFSHORE OIL RIGS ALSO CONTINUE TO REPORT SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A STORM SURGE VALUE OF MORE THAN 4 FEET RECENTLY OCCURRED JUST SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AT AMERADA PASS. RECENT REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS AND COASTAL MONITORING STATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
