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| #456308 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 04.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011 EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CENTER OF KATIA MOVED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NOAA BUOY 41044...WHICH MEASURED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 78 KT...A GUST TO 93 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 968.3 MB. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 65 AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 85 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...KATIA IS INITIALIZED AS AN 85-KT HURRICANE. AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...YET THE INFRARED IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTION VERY SYMMETRICAL. KATIA APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10 KT. ALTHOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE ON THIS FORECAST RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL ARE A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH BY DAY 5. MUCH OF THIS DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS...WHICH THE GFS SHOWS ABOUT 300 N MI FARTHER TO THE EAST AND DEEPER THAN IN THE ECMWF AND UKMET AT DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND STILL KEEPS THE HURRICANE AT OR EAST OF 72W. DESPITE THE QUICK STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...ADT ESTIMATES HAVE LEVELED OFF AT 85 KT...AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE CYCLE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS GOING TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. THE SHIPS MODEL IS STILL DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KATIA...BUT THE HURRICANE MAY BE BENEFITING FROM UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW JETS TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGHER RANGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND KATIA COULD STILL STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 21.9N 59.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 22.9N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 24.1N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 25.2N 64.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 26.2N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 28.0N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 30.0N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 72.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG |
