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| #456432 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 04.Sep.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011 ...LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 91.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LEE MAY BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY LATE MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES... 445 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. A NOAA BUOY JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...57 KM/H AND A GUST TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H. SEVERAL OFFSHORE OIL RIGS ALSO CONTINUE TO REPORT SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF LEE. A STORM SURGE VALUE OF MORE THAN 2 FEET RECENTLY OCCURRED JUST SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AT AMERADA PASS. REPORTS FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
