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| #45695 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 13.Sep.2005) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005 ...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT WOBBLES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND...AND FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...32.3 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
