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| #4570 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 12.Aug.2004) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004 ...CHARLEY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN CUBA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO BAYPORT. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO BAYPORT. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BAYPORT NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA BAY. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH TONIGHT AND NEAR HAVANA CUBA FRIDAY MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...21.2 N... 81.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
