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| #457216 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 06.Sep.2011) TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 2100 UTC TUE SEP 06 2011 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 37.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 37.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 36.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.3N 39.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.9N 43.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.7N 47.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 50.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 20SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 20SE 25SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 37.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
