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| #457439 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 07.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011 CONSIDERING THAT THERE WERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND A RECENT ONE WITH STRONGER WINDS...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME AND THE ONLY IMPRESSIVE FEATURE OF THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR LGEM DEVELOPS THE CYCLONE TOO MUCH. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IS THE GFDL AND IT ONLY INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING ONLY. MARIA IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...KEEP MARIA ON THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. ONCE MARIA REACHES THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH IS BOUNDED BY THE GFS ON THE NORTH AND THE ECMWF ON THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.0N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 14.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.5N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.5N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 17.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 20.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 23.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
