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| #457544 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 PM 07.Sep.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING FEATURES NOTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL RIGS...ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA...SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED. THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL ALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED NATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT. NATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING DURING THE DAY...WITH A LONG-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 110/2. NATE IS IN AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF LEE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THIS PATTERN. AFTER THAT TIME...A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE NATE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH...EVENTUALLY BENDING TO THE LEFT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECMWF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 20.2N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 20.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 20.1N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 20.4N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 21.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 22.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 23.0N 96.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY |
