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| #457545 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 PM 07.Sep.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM NATE FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM PEMEX OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...70 KM/H...GUSTING TO 50 MPH...80 KM/H. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL... NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY |
