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| #457626 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 07.Sep.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY...CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE...SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE POSITION OR THE ORGANIZATION OF NATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM RETAINS A SOMEWHAT BAROCLINIC APPEARANCE DUE TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A FRONTAL ZONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A SHIP REPORTED 40 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 0000 UTC....AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 090/2...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO REFORMATIONS OF THE CENTER WILL CAUSE LARGER CHANGES IN POSITION THAN THE ACTUAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME...RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SHOULD CAUSE NATE TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHICH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS NATE TURNING WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF NORTH-TO-SOUTH SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE CANADIAN MODEL IS A MAJOR OUTLIER IN SHOWING A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS THE CENTER OF NATE REMAINING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. NATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS LOW SHEAR AND THE WARM UNDERLYING WATERS BY FORECASTING STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABUNDANT DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF NATE WHICH COULD SLOW THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IF THE STORM INGESTS IT...AND THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DIVIDED ON HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR NATE MIGHT ENCOUNTER...WITH THE ECMWF FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 20.4N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 20.3N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 20.5N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 21.1N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 21.7N 92.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 23.0N 94.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.5N 95.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 23.5N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
