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| #457704 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 08.Sep.2011) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 0900 UTC THU SEP 08 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.4W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 120SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.4W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.4N 92.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.6N 92.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.2N 92.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.8N 93.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.7N 94.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 97.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 92.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH |
