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#457779 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 08.Sep.2011)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 92.4W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 90SE 120SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 92.4W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 92.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.4N 92.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 45SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 90SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.0N 92.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 45SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 90SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 92.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.5N 93.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.1N 93.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.6N 94.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 92.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN