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| #457786 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 AM 08.Sep.2011) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SINCE IT PASSED VERY CLOSE TO A NOAA BUOY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...CONSISTENT WITH SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT BASED ON THE PRIOR BUOY OBSERVATION AND CONTINUITY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ALSO HELD AT 970 MB. KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...SLIGHTLY FASTER AT 360/15...AND RELIABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATIA WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TAKES THE REMNANTS OF KATIA NORTH OF THE BRITISH ISLES IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT KATIA WILL REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE EVEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WESTERLIES. THE GFS INDICATES THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD OCCUR A LITTLE SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 33.6N 70.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 35.6N 69.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 38.3N 66.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 40.7N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 43.2N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 50.0N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 59.0N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z 62.0N 2.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/FRANKLIN |
