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| #457817 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:40 PM 08.Sep.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 200 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011 ...MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 52.0W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...AND SAINT KITTS. * ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...GUADELOUPE...AND MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA. * ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS TIME...AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA BECOMES A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
