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| #457878 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 08.Sep.2011) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 2100 UTC THU SEP 08 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 92.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 92.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 92.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.2N 92.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.9N 92.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.6N 93.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N 94.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 94.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 95.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 92.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
