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| #458112 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 09.Sep.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011 ...NATE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 92.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM TAMPICO TO LA CRUZ AND FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO * MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO * MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO LA CRUZ A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NATE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE AND TABASCO. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
