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#458117 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 09.Sep.2011)
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 57.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 45SE 60SW 190NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 57.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.1N 59.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N 62.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.9N 64.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.3N 66.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 69.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 57.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN