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| #458201 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 09.Sep.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011 ...NATE STATIONARY AGAIN...EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 92.8W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO * MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO LA CRUZ A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. NATE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NATE WILL APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE AND TABASCO. STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NATE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
