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| #458204 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 09.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF MARIA SINCE THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON REVEALED SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. BEFORE DEPARTING MARIA...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...WHICH SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT LACK OF INNER-CORE STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED BY SOME OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT APPEARS THAT MARIA HAS SLOWED DOWN TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE SURFACE CENTER REFORMS CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. IN FACT... THIS MAY BE WHY THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PARTLY FOR THIS REASON...THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING MARIA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.8N 58.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 15.8N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 17.2N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 18.7N 64.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.0N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 22.7N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 25.5N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 31.0N 71.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
