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| #458268 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 09.Sep.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT MARIA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 59.5W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM N OF BARBADOS ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICA * ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY...AND BE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE STARTING ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
