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| #458300 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 10.Sep.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 200 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011 ...MARIA VERY DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 59.8W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICA * ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA IS POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND THEN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THE END OF THE DAY. RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
