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| #458339 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 10.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011 MARIA LOOKS DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT APPEARS THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED WINDS OF NEAR 43 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE ALLEDGED CENTER ON ITS WAY TO THE BASE. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE GUADELOUPE RADAR STILL SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION. I AM NOT READY TO WRITE THIS ONE OFF YET AND MARIA IS KEPT AS A 40-KNOT TROPICAL STORM IN THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATUS OF MARIA...I PROPOSE NOT TO CHANGE ANY OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE MORNING WILL HELP US TO DETERMINE IF MARIA IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT. EVEN IF THE PLANE FINDS AN OPEN TROUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORS REGENERATION AND STRENGHTENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE INTENISTY GUIDANCE. IN FACT...EVEN THE HWRF HAS BECOME MORE AGRESSIVE MAKING MARIA A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC WITH MARIA. BECAUSE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT MARIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE WILL BE REACHING THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL IN A DAY...SO A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS FORECAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE REAL CHALLENGE HERE IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 16.0N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 17.0N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 18.5N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 20.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.5N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.5N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 27.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
