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| #458393 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 10.Sep.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011 NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL APPEARANCE...WITH A LARGE CENTER FILLED WITH LOW CLOUDS SURROUNDED BY SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT WILL BE THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE NATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NATE COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. NATE SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS... HOWEVER THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05...AS NATE IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE STRENGTHENS OVER MEXICO...A MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS SHOWN BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE BY 12 HOURS...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 20.0N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.9N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 19.8N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 19.7N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 19.6N 98.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
