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| #458419 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 PM 10.Sep.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 100 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS NATE STRONGER AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 94.2W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. NATE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF NATE WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND NATE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TABASCO. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
