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| #458456 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 10.Sep.2011) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 2100 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.4W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......175NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.4W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 63.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...175NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.6N 65.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...175NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.9N 67.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.9N 68.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 70.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 45SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 30.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
