Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #458459 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 10.Sep.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011 THE STRUCTURE OF NATE HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN A LARGE CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 68 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND AN SFMR WIND OF 52 KT AS THE PLANE EXITED THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY THROUGH LANDFALL AS NATE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER PAUSING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...NATE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH LANDFALL TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD A LITTLE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BEING A BIT NORTH OF EARLIER ESTIMATES...BUT WAS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 20.1N 94.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.0N 95.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 19.9N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 19.8N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1800Z 19.7N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
