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| #458512 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 10.Sep.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011 ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CENTER. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 2349Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE IN THE CORE REGION. THE INITIAL WINDS WILL STAY 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOULD BE IN THE AREA AROUND 0600 UTC. GIVEN THE DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT...LIGHT SHEAR...AND THE IMPROVED CENTRAL FEATURES...SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE NATE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE NEW NHC FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED TIME INTERVALS...NATE IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. BEST ESTIMATE OF MOTION IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...265/5. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE THAT MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL IN A LITTLE LESS THAN A DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN NO NOTABLE SHIFTS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.0N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 19.8N 95.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 19.7N 97.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 19.7N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
