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| #458576 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 11.Sep.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011 ...NATE WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 95.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST. NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF NATE WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA |
