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| #458639 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 11.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MARIA IS RATHER DECEIVING THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF MARIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE AIRCRAFT HAS YET TO SAMPLE THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL. MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. MARIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED. AFTER 48 HOURS...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 19.0N 64.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 20.1N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 21.1N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 21.9N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 22.9N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 27.5N 69.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 45.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
