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| #458871 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 12.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 AM AST MON SEP 12 2011 MARIA CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS LACK OF ORGANIZATION...DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND A BLEND OF THESE YIELDS 45 KT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES ABOUT 25 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER MARIA...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N 65W. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT WEAKEN THIS LOW UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS...SO LITTLE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME. EVEN AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS...MARIA WILL STILL ENCOUNTER 15 TO 20 KT OF WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THEREFORE THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECASTS ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AT 36 HOURS AND NONE AFTER THAT TIME. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE LGEM BEYOND THAT TIME UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ONLY SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 2 KT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...SLOWER AND WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD AND SLOWER INITIAL MOTION...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE LEFT OF AND IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THROUGH 24 HOURS THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS TAKE MARIA IMMEDIATELY NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST ASSUMES MARIA WILL REMAIN A DEEP CYCLONE AND FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. IF MARIA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE MORE WESTWARD THAN INDICATED HERE AND WEAKEN OR PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.7N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 21.1N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 22.6N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 24.5N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 26.5N 69.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 34.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 43.5N 57.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 17/1200Z 54.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
