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| #459180 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 13.Sep.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011 ...MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 67.9W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
