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| #459334 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 14.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA REMAINS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A BIT WEST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES. WHILE MARIA IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY... WIND SHEAR HAS CLEARLY BEEN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT RETAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. MARIA HAS SOME CHANCE TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A RATHER HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. ABOUT HALF OF THE MODELS...IN FACT...MAKE MARIA A HURRICANE. GIVEN THAT THIS STORM HAS BEEN AN UNDERPERFORMER...AND STILL HAS TO MOVE THROUGH THE SST WAKE OF KATIA...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE NORTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE STORM HAS BEGUN DUE TO A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW AND CAUSE A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS MARIA GETS CAUGHT IN RATHER FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT IN THE FIRST 24 HR...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE REPOSITIONING...BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD WATERS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 3 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES WITH THAT SCENARIO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 25.2N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 27.6N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 31.6N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 36.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 42.5N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
