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| #45949 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:49 PM 14.Sep.2005) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 ...OPHELIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... AND OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DATA FROM AN NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA REPORTING STATION AT WRIGHTVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA RECORDED 6-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 MPH WITH A GUST TO 77 MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...33.9 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
