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| #459532 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 15.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2011 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES...BUT A 0506 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE CONVECTION. IT MEANS THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL SHEARED. LATEST T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB WERE 3.5 ON THE THE DVORAK SCALE YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY IS OF 55 KNOTS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR MARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER AND THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS. THEREAFTER...MARIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT BECOMES ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. MARIA IS ACCELERATING AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS. MARIA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 30.2N 68.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 33.7N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 39.0N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 45.0N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0600Z 51.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
