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| #459582 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 15.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2011 MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT MARIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. AN EYE...OPEN TO THE SOUTH...IS APPARENT IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME TILT BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT...WITH CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATES OF 63 KT AND ADT VALUES OF 57 KT. THE INITIAL WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE BETTER DEFINED CORE FEATURES AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED. MARIA HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OF WARM WATER AND MODERATE SHEAR BEFORE IT CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND ENCOUNTERS A MUCH HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE LATER TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES WITH THAT SCENARIO. MARIA IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26 KT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST STARTING BY TONIGHT AT A RATE OF ABOUT 40 KT AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN FAST MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH A FAIR NUMBER OF THE MODELS BRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LATEST FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 32.4N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 36.7N 64.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 42.8N 57.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 49.5N 49.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
