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| #459642 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 15.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011 SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT MARIA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED. AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON BERMUDA RADAR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN SEEN IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. MARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING ABOUT 31 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE 45 KT OR FASTER ON FRIDAY AS IT GET CAUGHT IN VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSE TO NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH IT IS STILL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE AND THE WATER IS WARM. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW...DUE IN PART TO THE EXPECTED VERY FAST FORWARD MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. THE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. IF THERE IS A FURTHER WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE OR MARIA BECOMES STRONGER...A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS EVENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 35.2N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 39.6N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 46.7N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 54.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN |
