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| #459705 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 15.Sep.2011) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011 ...MARIA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 63.5W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOUR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE MARIA MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA. STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
