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| #459707 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 15.Sep.2011) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA...ALTHOUGH TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...A 30 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT IN EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...THE EYE FEATURE NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF MARIA. MARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/37 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM NOVA SCOTIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MARIA PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS SPEED OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS. SINCE MARIA IS NOW RAPIDLY APPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT THAT LIES ALONG 40N LATITUDE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE AVALON PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY WANE AFTER MARIA MOVES OVER COLDER WATER NORTH OF 40N...THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF 45-50 KT SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET ANY LOSS OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LGEM INTENSITY MODEL. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND FORECAST POINTS WERE COORDINATED WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER AND THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 38.5N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 43.3N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 50.7N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 58.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
