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| #45991 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 14.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... ALONG WITH NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY...INDICATE OPHELIA'S INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 75 KT SINCE THE INTENSITY UPDATE MENTIONED IN THE TCU PRODUCT THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS NOTED IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE UNUSUALLY LARGE 50 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITH A SHARPER EDGE NOTED IN THE INNER EYEWALL. A SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTICES HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE INSIDE OF THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS AS NOTED IN A FEW 77-79 KT WIND SPIKES IN THE SFMR DATA...BUT THESE HIGHER VALUES WERE NOT FELT TO BE INDICATIVE OF THE LARGER-SCALE EYEWALL WIND FIELD. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/06. RECON AND RADAR POSITION FIXES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON TRACK...SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF OPHELIA CONTINUES TO SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSOURI VALLEY AREAS CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HURRICANE. ANOTHER DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER MOST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IS ALSO MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. AS SUCH...THIS LARGE-SCALE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...MINUS THE NORTHWARD-BIASED UKMET MODEL WHICH TAKES OPHELIA ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY 48 HOURS. THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING CATEGORY 2 STATUS ...BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION INDUCE SOME SLOW WEAKENING IN THE 24-72 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THAT...MUCH COLDER WATER WITH SSTS LESS THAN 20C LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY ASSIST IN OPHELIA TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 34.1N 77.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 34.8N 76.4W 80 KT...NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NC 24HR VT 15/1800Z 35.3N 75.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 36.0N 74.1W 70 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 37.5N 72.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 41.3N 65.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/1800Z 46.0N 56.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/1800Z 49.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
