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| #46039 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 14.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KT...BASED ON 84 KT WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE SOUTH EYEWALL...AND A 10-MIN MEAN WIND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT OF 64 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP A LITTLE AND THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED A BIT...SO OPHELIA MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERE IS RAPIDLY UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS MAY BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL...I HAVE TO THINK THAT THIS FLOW WILL BE A DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE ON THE CIRCULATION IN ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT UNDER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/6. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO THE LEFT...WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS...AND UKMET TAKING OPHELIA CLOSE ENOUGH TO THREATEN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES BEING DEEPER OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A MORE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BERMUDA. GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SHIFT IN ALL THE GUIDANCE...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION DOWN THE ROAD MAY BE REQUIRED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 34.3N 76.5W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 34.7N 75.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 35.3N 74.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 36.3N 73.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 38.0N 71.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 42.5N 65.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0000Z 46.5N 56.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
