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| #460758 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 20.Sep.2011) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 40.1W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 40.1W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 39.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.4N 42.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.7N 44.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.9N 47.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.2N 50.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 40.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
