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| #460807 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 21.Sep.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 500 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011 CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT...BASED ON DATA FROM A SHIP LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF OPHELIA DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN A FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT OPHELIA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 12.7N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 13.0N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 13.2N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 13.5N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 14.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 15.7N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 18.0N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 20.0N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
